Sorare Tactics
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GW 1 J1 League Preview - Final
🕑 Added 2024-08-16 11:11:11 +0000 UTCUpdates
SO5 Analysis
Best xG - Kawasaki (1.95xG), Machida (1.75 xG)
Best Clean sheet odds -Machida (47%), Hiroshima (43%)
Best Stack - Machida, Hiroshima
Kawasaki vs YFM is expected to be an open game. Both play attacking football with shaky defenses. I agree and dont expect clean sheets for either side tbh
Machida have decent but have been struggling in front on goal recently. They have scored just 2 goals in their last 4 games which is a concern.
Hiroshima are the form team and look decent to stack in their away game to Nagoya. I particularly likely their defense. Shonan also in solid form and a decent stack opportunity as their team is pretty stable.
Players I like this GW are - Suzuki, Tanaka, Marchino, Yamada, Sho Sasaki
Updates
Typhoon has hit Tokyo area as of now. Its slightly weaker than expected. As far as I can tell only Kashima vs Urawa game have announced they will be checking tomorrow morning if the game will go ahead. This has the most risk but imo based on weather reports/fan talk should go ahead. As always just my analysis so decide yourself on lineups, risk vs reward :D
The other 4 games below with slight risk are below. Again I reckon are fine as a) Typhoon would have passed by tomorrow night and b) local derbies so no less issues with transport
Machida vs Iwata
FC Tokyo vs Tokyo V
Kawasaki vs YFM
Shonan vs Kashiwa
For FC Tokyo, Kashif is out. Shirai and Nagatomo expected as wingbacks
For YFM - Yan seen in training but sadly nothing concrete. Some risk still there. Yamane getting lots of coverage. He/Amano likely replace Kida as DCM
Matsubara not seen in training and limited info, assumed out. Nagato looks good in training. Imo he starts LB and Kato RB but some risk here.
Popp remains slight fav to start in nets
For Nagoya, Tokumoto hasnt registered yet so unable to start. Izumi likely that spot.
For Machida, Nakayama did full training. Unclear if registered. Matsumoto/Ikeda options and also change to 3 at back.
For Kashiwa, manager suggested they change 3 at the back. Sekine is v likely out. Rest of lineup pretty stable but if formation changes could see some tweaking. Shouldnt impact key players
For Urawa, ive seen more talk about Santana starting to help physically vs Kashima style. Still a risk but % increase here to 60%. Rest as draft
For Iwata - "Goalkeeper Kawashima has joined the team for the first time in a month, but it will be a while before he returns to action"
For Kobe, Yamaguchi and Sakai still out. Hatsuse a doubt. Wingback situation unclear. Eg Hirose/Honda/Kikuchi all available
Finish
I hope you found this useful!
If any team news drops before deadline willl post info here
If you have any questions, spot any mistakes here, just give me shout!
The ACL draw was made and I will make a seperate post about that. Also note, I plan to do a review of the patreon given the changes on Sorare and will be doing some general analysis and identifying potential edges + what to target eg the specials etc. If you have any feedback on what you want to see, just let me know here or Discord.
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We have 9 games for this wkend GW!
Game are all on Saturday which means we will get plenty of team news tomorrow (Friday)
A typhoon is due to hit the Tokyo area on Friday which could impact the following games:
Kashima vs Urawa
Machida vs Iwata
FC Tokyo vs Tokyo V
Kawasaki vs YFM
Shonan vs Kashiwa
My feeling is we should be ok but always hard to know with these things. Again, I will monitor and give the latest info before the deadline
Fixtures
J1 Table
More surprises at the top of the table with both Machida and Kashima losing. Hiroshima won their 4th game in row to jump up to third and are just 4 pts off the top of the table. With Kobe also winning, the title race is suddenly wide open.
Sapporo and Sagan battled to draws although remain in deep trouble. Kyoto lost to drop back into the bottom 3 with Iwata picking up a win. Things are very tight with Shonan the form team picking up a sublime win away to leaders Machida.
Main Point
Peixoto (Iwata), Uchida (Nagoya), Ogihara (Kobe), Nishikawa (Urawa), Shimamura (Kashiwa), Kida (YFM), Dresevic (Machida) are all suspended this GW
We have seen lots of transfers in the last couple of weeks! Best place to see these are here
Seko and Ominami (both Kawasaki) have been allowed to leave their clubs to complete transfers to europe clubs. Both will still be covered on SO5.
YFM keeper situation is sadly unclear! Manager has said he want it to be competitive. So far they have taken it in turns so more likely Popp here.
Hiroshima have won their last 4 games and the form team
Kawasaki have won 3 in a row and unbeaten in 8 games
Shonan have won 4 of their last 5 games and playing decent
FC Tokyo have picked up just 1 win in 6
SO5 Analysis
Best xG - Kawasaki (1.95xG), Machida (1.75 xG)
Best Clean sheet odds -Machida (47%), Hiroshima (43%)
Best Stack - Machida, Hiroshima
Kawasaki vs YFM is expected to be an open game. Both play attacking football with shaky defenses. I agree and dont expect clean sheets for either side tbh
Machida have decent but have been struggling in front on goal recently. They have scored just 2 goals in their last 4 games which is a concern.
Hiroshima are the form team and look decent to stack in their away game to Nagoya. I particularly likely their defense. Shonan also in solid form and a decent stack opportunity as their team is pretty stable.
Players I like this GW are - Suzuki, Tanaka, Marchino, Yamada, Sho Sasaki
Predicted Lineups
Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)
When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.
I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.
Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.
Kashima vs Urawa
Kashima
Tired performance in 2-1 loss to Iwata.
Cavric is out injured, new signings made but likely make bench at best
Nakama missed last game but seen in training. In line to return to first team but some risk still there
Urawa
In general, having poor season given expectations as title contenders.
Ito has transferred to the Jupiler league
Nishikawa is suspended
All players are in training outside Maeda who was only in light training.
Manager impressed by Okubo and Sekine who are favs to start
Situation with Santana unclear. He had calf pain the last two games but also out of favour. Linssen is also an option to play
Some speculation that Nakajima may move to Tokyo Verdy in this transfer window
Machida vs Iwata
Machida
Top of the table. In relatively poor form including a loss last week
Sugioka is available to play after missing the last game
Dresevic is suspended.
Nakayama was signed and seen in training. Could come straight in at LCB
Other options including playing 3 at the back
Lots of options up front especially. Risk of changing things up after the defeat last/misfiring with goals recently. In general Oh Se Hun and Fujio pref choices.
Iwata
Won vs Kashima last week
Watanabe inline to continue after an impressive debut
Germain returns from suspension.
Kawashima situation remains unclear, Miura likely to continue in nets.
FC Tokyo vs Tokyo V
FC Tokyo
Team unstable, lots of changes in players and formation.
Tokumoto has moved to Nagoya on loan. Nakatomo likely replaces him this game. Kashif fitness unclear and also linked to move to Urawa
Trevisan and Kimoto seen in training. Remain risks for this game.
Doi went off with minor issue. After a 3-0 loss could see changes especially as this is a local derby so Morishige experience needed
Despite the heavy loss, Brandon should continue in nets imo
Tokyo V
Back to back losses
Morita played some mins from bench. Club being careful in using him
Hard to predict the setup in midfield. Could change if formation is 4 or 3 at the back
Will get training info Friday morning, will update based on that as usually has useful info.
Kawasaki vs YFM
Having poor season but have won 3 games in a row
Ominami and Seko not available as on verge of transfers out
Yamada has scored 2 goals in each of his last 3 games. On fire.
Likely keep to similar lineup as to the team thats won recently.
YFM
Lost against Kobe last game. First loss for new manager
Iikura came in for Popp. Manager has said its a competitive situation. Should see Popp come in again though still a risk and unclear situations sadly,
Matsubara went off at half time last game, a risk here. Nagato close to full fitness. Could see him at LB and Kato RB if Matsubara not ready.
Waiting on injury/training news on players like Yan. Will get this Friday before deadline.
Shonan vs Kashiwa
Shonan
In solid form. Great win away to Machida last week.
No known new injuries. Same lineup most likely.
Kashiwa
Drew 0-0 vs Gamba last week. Falling down table and into the relegation scrap
Sekine went off with an injury last game. TBC his condition. Atm is doubtful
Tezuka played some mins from bench last game. Pushing for a start.
Nagoya vs Hiroshima
Nagoya
Beat Tokyo Verdy 1-0 last game.
Ono out injured. Nagai only in partial training. Uchida out suspended
Morishima is available after suspension
Tokumoto has joined. Could come straight in as is match fit (depends on if registration complete etc)
Junker came on as sub last couple of games. Patric doing well up top so I have him fav to continue esp as Junker still rusty.
Hiroshima
3 wins in a row
Shiotani had back problems last game but was in full training this week and the manager has said hes fine to play
Kawabe made debut last game. Arslan scored 2 from bench. Unclear who starts here considering form and balance of side.
Sotiriou, MJ are injury doubt sand likely out.
Cerezo vs Kyoto
Cerezo
Lost to Hiroshima last week. In poor form
Capi is out injured
Kagawa is back in full training and pushing for a start
Nishio started at RB. Likely continue the same 4 at the back
Kyoto
Lost first game in 7 on Monday
Gu and Api went off injured then and concerns (TBC their condition)
Kawasaki has said hes ready to play. Still some doubts about his fitness. Rest of lineup should remain stable
This is a local derby
Kobe vs Gamba
Kobe
Impressive 2-1 away at YFM with Muto scoring both.
Thuler returns from suspension. Hatsuse and Honda both injury concerns
Kikuchi has done ok last few games, could feature but not guaranteed. Lots depends on players fitness
Hirose played at RB and can also play as LW or LB
Miyashiro in full training. Has been out for a while, could be getting mins from bench
Oghihara out suspended. Yamaguchi in light training and could feature. Morioka signed but unlikely to be match fit yet
Sakai in light training on Wednesday. Waiting on further news but i assume will be eased in
This is a local derby
Gamba
Welton should return to starting lineup
Dawhan an injury concern but should start over Lavi
A few options in winger spots/Alano pushing for start
Yamada back to full fitness
Fukuoka vs Niigata
Niigata
Finish
I hope you found this useful!
I will post the final version tomorrow including SO5 analysis.
We will get lots of updates before the deadline including on the typhoon and I shall update on that on with my feeling of the risk levels
If you have any questions, spot any mistakes here, just give me shout!
