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📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 21 2023📈
🕑 Added 2023-11-21 18:04:56 +0000 UTC8 games on Monday.
In-depth analysis on 35 top NBA prospects.
PLUS: the most interesting stat lines from last night’s G League games.
DEN 107 @ DET 103
Cade Cunningham
27 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 2 REB | 9 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 11-11 FT | 38 MIN
🔸The defensive playmaking AND getting to the line for 11 free throws? This is the Cade we need. His rebound rate has been cut in half because of Ausar Thompson but this is the stat set we project for Cade’s prime. Every attempt in the paint is still heavily contested but if he can draw fouls like this, it changes everything.
Jaden Ivey
17 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 30 MIN
🔸Season-high 30 minutes even with Killian Hayes (14 MIN) and Alec Burks (17 MIN) active. Ivey attacked the rim relentlessly and assisted Cade twice - including an easy catch-and-shoot three on a drive kickout. This is what the Pistons’ offense needs and both Cade and Jaden will benefit from being paired in more minutes.
Ausar Thompson
8 PTS | 7 REB | 2 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 24 MIN
🔸Limited minutes due to foul trouble. Ausar is #6 in total blocks in the entire league - behind only Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Rudy Gobert. He’s 6’ 7”.
Christian Braun
15 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 32 MIN
🔸I’ve been skeptical on Bruan as a fantasy producer, but it’s been nice to see his game scale up with more opportunity in the last three games. He’s 6-8 from three during that span and has improved significantly as a defender so far this season.
Peyton Watson
4 PTS | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 13 MIN
🔸Watson’s role has been capped at 11-13 minutes a night but he continues to carry an elite 94th percentile block rate. He remains one of the best stashes in the league and I think he’ll eventually be a big minute starter across his prime.
Marcus Sasser
2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1-1 2PT | 5 MIN
🔸Sasser was on the outside of the rotation behind Ivey, Hayes, and Burks but I wouldn’t panic. I think he’s shown more than enough to be part of the Pistons’ long-term plan and is a better fit for the rotation than Hayes.
BOS 118 @ CHA 121
Mark Williams
18 PTS | 16 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 8-14 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN
🔸Eight offensive rebounds for Williams in this game - and he’s 3rd in the league in that category this season. Williams is such a valuable fantasy asset because of his plus steal rate (61st percentile) and non-damaging FT% (70.8%) along with the elite big man stats. The early season minutes restriction is gone and WIlliams has eclipsed 30 minutes per game in his last three.
Brandon Miller
9 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 40 MIN
🔸Huge minutes but cold shooting. Miller is 12-18 from midrange in his last five games and shooting 50% for the season. Bridges’ arrival in the rotation will likely cap Miller’s offensive role this season but there’s been a lot to love about his rookie campaign so far.
Payton Pritchard
21 PTS | 5-8 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 3-6 2PT | 33 MIN
🔸Pritchard took advantage of Derrick White being out and finally hit some threes after being sub-30% through the first 13 games. He’ll go back to a small rotation role going forward but this is a nice reminder of the fantasy potential he has if a big role ever comes his way.
Sam Hauser
3 PTS | 1-9 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 37 MIN
🔸Finally cooled down from three and put up an extremely Tony Snell stat line in 37 minutes. Hauser is going to be a rotation player for many years to come because of his shooting and surprisingly competent on-ball defense, but his fantasy value is 3PT only.
MIL 142 @ WAS 129
Bilal Coulibaly
12 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 3-5 2PT | 25 MIN
🔸The outlines of Coulibaly’s game are starting to form - a strong 69.7% at the rim and already shooting 46.2% from three - plus solid steal and block rates (67th and 73rd percentile, respectively). If Bilal is THIS competent as a 19 year-old role player, I’m even more confident that he will make the leap to being a star wing in his prime.
Deni Avdija
7 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 3-4 2PT | 1-2 FT | 31 MIN
🔸A slow game for Deni but his minutes have been 30+ in five of his last six games and he’s a solid 66.1% at the rim and 41% from three (albeit on average volume). His defense should keep him in a strong role - we just need to see the usage creep into the 20s (current at 18%).
Johnny Davis
0 PTS | 1 REB | 1 AST | 6 MIN
Davis is on the fringe of the Wizards’ rotation, even with Delon Wright out, and - while I generally don’t like to write prospects off until after Year 3 - the ceiling on Davis is looking like a rotation guard at best. This Wizards’ front office has no investment in Davis and they don’t appear to have any desire to force him into minutes.
AJ Green
2 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-1 2PT | 15 MIN
🔸Green has worked into Milwaukee’s rotation in the last two games with Beauchamp out. He’s a three point specialist who hit 4.4 threes per game on 10.3 attempts (42.6%) across 15 G League appearances last season. I don’t think there’s anything to see here for dynasty leagues.
NYK 100 @ MIN 117
Immanuel Quickley
15 PTS | 1-7 3PT | 1 REB | 3-7 2PT | 6-6 FT | 17 MIN
🔸 Low minutes in his last two games but the underlying metrics all scream breakout potential. Quickley’s midrange game is looking elite - 54.5% on 86th percentile volume - and he’s getting to the line at an 82nd percentile clip with an 89.4 FT%. Add in a strong assist rate and you have the foundation of a future starting PG. We should all be looking to acquire IQ before he gets that starting opportunity.
Quentin Grimes
0 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 25 MIN
🔸 The good news? Grimes is shooting 40.3% from three on 85th percentile volume and jumped up to a competent 60th percentile steal rate. The bad news? He’s down to 24.7 minutes a night and 12.2% usage. This just isn’t enough of a role to support his meager fantasy game.
Josh Minott
2 PTS | 2 REB | 1-1 2PT | 1 MIN
🔸Minott has played only 20 minutes all season but maybe we see more of him if Jaden McDaniels misses some time and Kyle Anderson is playing big minutes. He can be an elite STL and BLK producer even in limited minutes.
LAC 124 @ SAS 99
Victor Wembanyama
9 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 1-1 FT | 27 MIN
🔸Wembanyama only having one attempt at the rim is an indictment on how stagnant the Spurs’ offense is without competent playmaking on the floor. I have zero concern about Wemby hitting his superstar upside - and there are some great indicators across his first 14 games (70.6% at the rim, 94th percentile defensive rebounding, 98th percentile block rate). Once the Spurs put some passing around Victor, it’s going to be over for the league.
Jeremy Sochan
8 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 3-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 29 MIN
🔸No, the Point Sochan experiment is not going to make Jeremy into a long-term starting point guard - but it’s probably the best thing for his long-term development as a connector and frontcourt hub next to Wembanyama. He’s 10-27 from three (37%) and above 60% at the rim - which are solid developments in Year 2 - I just really want to see some improvement in the defensive stat rates and that hasn’t happened yet.
Charles Bassey
2 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 4 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 18 MIN
🔸Some extra work in garbage time here but it’s nice to Bassey’s per-minute fantasy game popping again. His rebounding and block rates are at the top of the league and he has quick hands for a center - showing a knack for generating steals and deflections. Probably just a long-term backup big but you stash him for the per-minute upside.
Julian Champagnie
5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 23 MIN
🔸Expanded minutes with Vassell out, Champagnie dominated in his Summer League appearances and his steal and block rates from college appear to be translating to the pro game. His elite 3PT volume (89th percentile this year, 93rd percentile last year) combined with his strong positional size should make him a long-term rotation wing.
Malaki Branham
10 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 AST | 2-3 2PT | 21 MIN
🔸Branham is 11 for 19 from midrange in his last four games and his assist rate is up to a solid 16%. I don’t know if Branham is more than a rotation combo guard at his peak but his three-level scoring potential and 6’10” wingspan make me think it’s possible he could become more with time.
Bones Hyland
3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0-1 2PT | 4 MIN
🔸Out of the rotation now that Harden has arrived. Bones is only 23 years old and I think he emerges into a strong per-minute rotation guard in the next year or two.
SAC 93 @ NOR 129
Herb Jones
18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 27 MIN
🔸It’s time to re-evaluate the ceiling on Herb Jones. He’s blocking shots at an elite level with a 91st percentile block rate - and has increased his contested shots per game from 6.2 to 7.5 this season (comparable to Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo). He’s shooting 75% at the rim and hitting a steady diet of corner threes. We’re also seeing nice progress in the rebound and assist rates. Herb is looking like a lot more than a steals specialist.
Keegan Murray
5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 16 MIN
🔸Left early with a back injury - hopefully it’s nothing serious. He’s been frustrating but the underlying metrics are showing that a leap is coming once the threes start falling again. Creating more shots for himself, playing elite defense, improved REB and AST rates, and a more diverse shot profile.
Dyson Daniels
3 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 25 MIN
🔸Dyson’s AST and STL rates have scaled up to a larger role so far this year and he’s hitting 56.3% from midrange (18-32). Like Jalen Suggs, I think the defense keeps him in a regular role and if he can continue to grow as a shooter, he should be a long-term starter.
Jordan Hawkins
9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN
🔸Hawkins likely retreats to the back of the rotation once McCollum and Murphy III return from injury but this extended run has been eye opening. Jordan is hitting 36.2% from three on 93rd percentile volume and he’s creating more shots off the dribble than I expected. Despite solid effort, he’s just too thin to help on defense (1st percentile Defensive EPM) but I think we’ve seen enough to view him as a likely starter in his prime.
MIA 118 @ CHI 100
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
19 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 5-9 2PT | 33 MIN
🔸Jaquez Jr. was a low-volume 3PT shooter at UCLA, but is up to 4.5 attempts per 75 possessions this season and hitting them at a 35.7% clip. His strong rim finishing is translating to the pros (65.4%) and he’s already a defensive disruptor (82nd percentile steal rate and 2.9 deflections per 36 minutes). Add in solid defense and a big wing frame and there’s good reason to think that Jaime is going to be at least a big minute rotation player and even a starter across his prime.
Patrick Williams
9 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 3 REB | 2 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 17 MIN
🔸Williams is averaging 15 minutes per game in his last three games. But there’s still some flashes here - Williams had three really impressive drives where he scored on contested layups against Miami and his block rate is up the 88th percentile along with a career-high 84th percentile steal rate. Last year’s strong 3PT shooting has evaporated (26.2%) but, at only 22 years old, I’m just not ready to give up on Williams as a prospect - we’ve seen Chicago fail to develop lottery prospects over and over in the last decade and Williams may just need a new team.
HOU 116 @ GSW 121
Alperen Şengün
30 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 13 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 11-20 2PT | 2-5 FT | 37 MIN
🔸Şengün is surpassing even the wildest projections of where we thought he could be in Year 3. He’s up to 32 minutes per game - both because he’s the primary driver of Houston’s halfcourt offense but also because his commitment on defense has warranted big minutes (80th percentile Defensive EPM). He’s just started scratching the surface of his 3PT shooting (5-8 in his last three games) and he dominated the offensive boards against the Warriors (7 OREB). It’s all happening.
Jabari Smith Jr.
17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN
🔸Jabari was cooking from midrange in this one (4-5) - getting to his spots and hitting contested jumpers like he did at Auburn. He’s still not creating many shots for himself and he’s getting to the line even less than last season (16th percentile FTA volume). But his improvement at the rim (75.8%, 90th percentile) and on defense makes me confident that he’ll be a long-term starter, even if the star potential seems less likely.
Jalen Green
16 PTS | 2-9 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 4-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 23 MIN
🔸Expect some ugly outings in the coming weeks for Green - it feels like Udoka is going to try to reshape him and keep him accountable in his minutes. The efficiency remains brutal - Green is the least efficient player inside the arc on high volume in the NBA this year - but he’s getting to the free throw line at a star-level rate and it’s still possible that it all clicks since we’re talking about a 21 year old. Hold on and hope for the leap later this season.
Brandin Podziemski
3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 18 MIN
🔸Podziemski has locked down a rotation spot in the last four games and everything we saw at Santa Clara is translating over - strong defensive rebounding (77th percentile) and assist rate (73rd percentile) and shooting 45.5% from three on solid volume. He’s going to at least be a good per-minute producer as a third guard in his prime and has a ceiling as a long-term starting PG who could stack top 75 seasons.
Moses Moody
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 2-4 2PT | 22 MIN
🔸Moody is showing the progression we needed to see in Year 3 - he’s solidly in the rotation, has increased his steal rate from 22nd percentile to 89th percentile and he continues to shoot efficiently from all three levels. The usage (16.1%) isn’t enough to make him fantasy relevant in the 18 mpg he’s averaging, but I think he will eventually be a starter whether in Golden State or elsewhere.
Jonathan Kuminga
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-4 2PT | 18 MIN
🔸As a Kuminga evangelist, it pains me to see minutes and volume this low in a game without Draymond. Kuminga has career-high usage (27.4%) and continues to dominate at the rim (69.6%) but he cannot hit a three to save his life (6 for 32, 18.8%) and hasn’t been as locked in defensively as he was for stretches of the 22-23 season. It’s been a mixed bag but JK is newly 21 years-old and I still think his high-end outcomes are on the table.
⚡G League Lightning Round⚡
Leonard Miller
10 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 26 MIN
GG Jackson
21 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-5 2PT | 3-3 FT | 32 MIN
Kobe Brown
17 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 11 REB | 4 AST | 1 BLK | 6-17 2PT | 1-3 FT | 33 MIN
Kris Murray
8 PTS | 2-8 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 1-6 2PT | 33 MIN
Kenneth Lofton Jr.
23 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 5-6 FT | 36 MIN
Rayan Rupert
13 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN
Wendell Moore Jr.
19 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 3 STL | 5-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 38 MIN
Comments
Matt Lawson
Love Ausar, but you’re definitely not going to feel that way once Scoot gets going later this season.
Ausur is looking like he should’ve been 1.02 instead of Scoot for me. Lol. I know that’s a short sighted comment. Lol.
Thank you for your hard work
